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Trzaskowski, Nawrocki through to run-off in Poland – exit poll
The two favourites in Poland – centrist Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski and radical-right historican Karol Nawrocki – are, as expected, safely through to the run-off on 1 June, according to the exit poll by Ipsos.
Rafał Trzaskowski (PO) 30.8%
Karol Nawrocki (PiS) 29.1%
Sławomir Mentzen 15.4%
Grzegorz Braun 6.2%
Adrian Zandberg 5.2%
Szymon Hołownia 4.8%
Magdalena Biejat 4.1%
Joanna Senyszyn 1.3%
Krzysztof Stanowski 1.3%
Marek Jakubiak 0.9%
Artur Bartoszewicz 0.5%
Maciej Maciak 0.4%
Marek Woch 0.1%
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Updated at 15.03 EDT
Exit polls in Poland, Portugal imminent
Exit polls in Poland and Portugal are imminent.
Ready?
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Polish presidential hopefuls cast their votes
Jakub Krupa
Given the Polish electoral blackout rules, we don’t have too many comments from key candidates, but here are their pictures from when they cast their votes earlier today.
Presidential candidate, Warsaw’s Mayor and member of ruling centrist Civic Coalition party Rafal Trzaskowski and his wife Malgorzata Trzaskowska cast their ballots at a polling station in Warsaw. Photograph: Czarek Sokołowski/APKarol Nawrocki, left, a non-partisan Presidential candidate supported by the right wing Law and Justice Party casting his vote with his family. Photograph: Wojciech Stróżyk/APFar-right Confederation candidate in the 2025 presidential elections, Slawomir Mentzen (L), with his wife, Agnieszka Mentzen (2-L), and their daughters, votes at a polling station during Poland’s presidential elections in Toruń, Poland. Photograph: Tytus Żmijewski/EPAPolish left-wing Together Party candidate for the Polish presidential election, Adrian Zandberg with his children votes at a polling station during Poland’s presidential elections in Warsaw, Poland. Photograph: Marcin Obara/EPAShare
Portugal prime minister hopes for ‘greater capacity to grow and prosper’
Sam Jones
Speaking after he voted on Sunday morning, Portugal’s caretaker prime minister, the AD leader Luís Montenegro, said he was hoping for a good turnout and for an election that would “produce positive solutions [and] greater capacity for the country to grow and prosper, so that there can be greater social justice and more opportunities”.
Portugal’s prime minister and Social Democratic Party (PSD) and AD coalition leader, Luis Montenegro, votes at a polling station during the general election in Espinho, Portugal. Photograph: Violeta Santos Moura/Reuters
He said Portugal wanted “more stability” as it returned to the polls for the third time since 2022. Montenegro, whose coalition is forecast to finish first but once again fall short of a majority, insisted he was taking nothing for granted.
“I will only think about the final speech after the results appear,” he told reporters in the city of Espinho.
“There is no point in thinking about it too soon. I am very calm, as is my habit. And also confident.”
The PS leader, Pedro Nuno Santos, called for huge participation in the election after he cast his ballot this morning, saying he did not want there to be any unpleasant surprises on Monday.
“This is the time to call for participation, for respect for democracy, for civic participation, for tolerant respect for everyone – but with a lot of participation, that’s what I want,” he said.
“If we don’t want to be surprised by things we don’t want on Monday, it’s important that people participate and vote.”
Andre Ventura, the leader of the far-right Chega party, shrugged off concerns about his recent ill health – he has been rushed to hospital twice during the final week of campaigning – and urged people to get out and vote.
“Today is not about my health,” he said in Lisbon. “It’s the health of democracy that is at stake … Make your choice, leave your house, choose the future of the country, regardless of what it is, regardless of who it is. Today it is in our hands,” he urged.”
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Updated at 15.03 EDT
Snap election ‘unlikely to drastically alter’ Portugal’s landscape – explainer
Sam Jones
Portugal returned to the polls for the third time in just over three years on Sunday to vote in a snap general election triggered by the country’s centre-right prime minister, Luís Montenegro, who is under pressure over his family’s business activities.
Voters wait to cast their ballot for the parliamentary elections at a polling station in Moita, near Lisbon, Portugal. Photograph: Antonio Cotrim/EPA
Montenegro, who leads the Social Democratic party – the largest party in Portugal’s ruling Democratic Alliance (AD) coalition – is facing political and judicial scrutiny over a data protection consultancy that he founded in 2021 and which he transferred to his wife and sons the following year.
The prime minister – who has denied any wrongdoing or ethical breaches – responded to the accusations by staging a vote of confidence in his administration in March, saying he wanted “to end the atmosphere of permanent insinuations and intrigues”. But he lost the vote and a fresh election was called.
The unexpected election is unlikely to drastically alter Portugal’s political landscape. Recent polls suggest a similar result to the last election in March 2024, putting the AD on about 33%, the opposition Socialist party (PS) on 26% and the far-right Chega party on 17%.
Portugal polls chart
Last time round, the AD won 80 seats to the PS’s 78, while Chega, which is led by the former football pundit André Ventura, enjoyed a surge in support and increased its seat count from 12 to 50.
Once again, Portugal’s housing crisis has become a major issue during this latest campaign.
“We’re talking about the same things we did last year,” said Filomena Martins, the deputy editor of the online Observador newspaper.
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‘Make or break’ vote in Poland’s presidential election – explainer
Jakub Krupa
Poles are voting in the first round of the presidential election on Sunday, in a vote seen as a “make or break” moment for the country’s pro-European coalition government, which is still attempting to reverse damage inflicted on the rule of law by the previous populist-nationalist administration it ousted two years ago.
Electoral posters are seen on the street of Warsaw. Photograph: Wojtek Radwański/AFP/Getty Images
Rafał Trzaskowski, the staunchly pro-European centrist Warsaw mayor from the prime minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO), is the favourite to win the election, but his lead over his conservative rival, the historian Karol Nawrocki, has narrowed over the last few weeks of the campaign.
Poland polls
Since coming to power in 2023 on a wave of discontent with the populist right Law and Justice party (PiS), the government led by the former European Council president Tusk has struggled to follow through on promises to reverse illiberal changes to the justice system and liberalise abortion laws.
The outgoing president, Andrzej Duda, is a close ally of the previous PiS government and a supporter of Donald Trump. He opposed the changes pursued by the new administration and blocked some decisions, including ambassadorial nominations.
A potential opposition win would extend the current standoff, prompting years of political instability.
In polls published before the country went into electoral silence on Friday, Trzaskowski, who lost to Duda in 2020, and Nawrocki were expected to comfortably come in the first two places, progressing to the run-off on 1 June.
However, in a sign of growing frustration among voters, the combined vote share of the top two candidates is forecast to be the lowest since the first presidential election in 1990.
Sławomir Mentzen, 38, a leader of the far-right Confederation party, is the outside candidate, who briefly challenged Nawrocki for second place but has faded over the past month.
ShareJakub Krupa
Right, we will get back to Romania shortly, but let’s take a look at Poland and Portugal when we should get first numbers in the next 10 minutes.
So let’s take a look at what’s at stake there.
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Dan marginally ahead after 49% votes counted
We are getting first official results through, and with 49.8% of votes counted, Dan is marginally ahead at 50.4% with Simion’s 49.6%.
I will bring you regular updates here.
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We are getting more lines from Nicușor Dan’s first speech after the results were announced.
Presidential candidate Nicușor Dan speaks to media after polls closed for the second round of the country’s presidential election redo in Bucharest, Romania. Photograph: Andreea Alexandru/AP
“There will be a difficult period ahead, necessary for economic rebalancing to lay the foundations of a healthy society. Please have hope and patience,” Dan said, as reported by Reuters.
The agency noted that if official results confirm the exit polls, Dan would need to nominate a prime minister to negotiate a majority in parliament to reduce Romania’s budget deficit – the largest in the EU – as well as to reassure investors and try to avoid a credit rating downgrade.
ShareJakub Krupa
That point by Jon about exit polls being only as good as the answers they get from voters is absolutely crucial.
With so many Simion voters having little trust in the electoral process – in line with their candidate’s comments – there is potential for all sorts of problems with data if they, say, refused to answer pollsters’ questions.
And, as mentioned earlier, then we have the diaspora vote, not included in exit polls. With record numbers of voters overseas, they could play a significant role here.
For what it’s worth, Simion appears to be doubling down on his rejection of the exit polls: he just posted on X claiming without offering any further evidence that he is “the new president of Romania”.
Well: that’s not what the exit polls say, so let’s wait for more official results.
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Updated at 14.30 EDT
Simion rejects exit poll results
But Dan’s rival, the far-right George Simion, is not willing to accept these numbers.
In fighting comments after the result was announced, he rejects the exit polls and quotes his own (unverified) data, claiming that he is actually ahead, in a passionate victory speech.
Expect this to be a long night.
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Updated at 14.30 EDT
Romanians want ‘dialogue, not hatred’ – Dan
In his immediate comments after the exit polls were announced, Nicușor Dan praises the “impressive strength” of the Romanian society that wants “profound change”, and says the victory shows Romanians wanted “dialogue, not hatred”.
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Updated at 14.30 EDT
High turnout a factor in Romanian vote – snap analysis
Jon Henley
It’s perhaps not that surprising given massive 64.5% turnout, up from 53% in the first round. Analysts have all said a higher turnout would favour Dan.
But it’s worth remembering the first round exit polls underestimated Simion by nearly 10 points.
They depend on voters being honest about who they voted for.
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Updated at 14.25 EDT
